Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition Philip E. Tetlock Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip ...

It’s unsettling to realize we have no power to predict the future, because it means we aren’t in control of our fate. At the best of times, that can leave us holding our breath. But in the worst of ...

Every coherent society has a social ideal—an image of what the superior person looks like. In America, from the late 19th ...

Moore, Don A., Philip E. Tetlock, Lloyd Tanlu, and Max H. Bazerman. "Conflicts of Interest and the Case of Auditor Independence: Moral Seduction and Strategic Issue Cycling." Academy of Management ...

So why are some people better able to make accurate predictions? University of Pennsylvania professor Philip Tetlock has looked in to this question. he studies why some people are better than ...

With poll-based forecasts being less reliable and trusted, a vacuum opened up leading into the 2024 elections, and political ...

Inspired by her work with Rozin, which centered on disgust, she decided to pursue graduate work in psychology at Penn with Professor Philip Tetlock. Once again, the working approach Tetlock had to his ...

This quote served as the ending paragraph on a memo written by Pentagon official Lin Wells. In his book Superforecasters: The ...

For example, a perfectly calibrated person would perhaps assign 19 percent probabilities to the events that Tetlock’s experts were inaccurately certain would not happen—or they might even ...

The prime minister's chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, has told journalists to "read Philip Tetlock's Superforecasters, instead of political pundits who don't know what they're talking about".

So I’ve been reading psychologist Philip Tetlock’s treatise on Expert Political Judgment. It’s a nifty piece of work, well worth your time. Recommended! Except for one pervasive twitch ...