Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new ...

Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most ...

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, ...

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on ...

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, ...